Last updated: 2026-05-04Last reviewed: 2026-05-04
Important distinction
A price near 0.60 is not a promise that an event has a 60% chance. It is a market price that can include fees, spreads, liquidity pressure, and settlement uncertainty.Direct answer
A binary outcome market pays a fixed amount if the chosen outcome resolves correctly and pays nothing if it resolves incorrectly. Traders should compare contract price to their own probability estimate, then account for fees, spreads, and resolution risk.
Checklist before trading
- What exactly causes the outcome to settle Yes or No?
- What is the expiry or settlement time?
- What asset is used for collateral and settlement?
- How wide is the order book spread?
- What happens if the event is ambiguous or delayed?
Live outcome metadata
This reads Hyperliquid's public `outcomeMeta` info endpoint. It shows market metadata, not prices or a trade recommendation.
Outcome #2
Recurring
YesNo
class
priceBinary
underlying
BTC
expiry
20260505-0600
targetPrice
79980
period
1d
Live API snapshot - updated 0s ago
Binary outcome EV calculator
Cost
$42.00
Expected payout
$55.00
Expected value
$13.00
Max profit
$58.00
Max loss
$42.00
Breakeven probability
42.0%
Bounded loss is not the same thing as low risk. Small changes in your probability estimate can flip the expected value of a binary contract.
Odds and probability converter
Odds implied probability
40.0%
Decimal outcome price
0.600
A binary outcome trading at 0.60 roughly maps to a 60% breakeven probability before fees, spreads, and settlement risk.
Risk notice
Crypto perpetuals and leveraged trading are high risk. You can lose money through liquidation, funding, slippage, oracle issues, protocol failures, and market volatility.Related tools
Sources
- Hyperliquid Docs: Info endpointAccessed 2026-05-04
- Hyperliquid Docs: Contract specificationsAccessed 2026-05-04
- QuickNode Docs: Hyperliquid outcomeMeta endpointAccessed 2026-05-04
- Hyperliquid Docs: RisksAccessed 2026-05-04