Calculator

Binary Outcome EV Calculator

Compare a binary outcome market price with your own probability estimate before thinking about the trade.

Last updated: 2026-05-04Last reviewed: 2026-05-04

Binary outcome EV calculator

Cost
$42.00
Expected payout
$55.00
Expected value
$13.00
Max profit
$58.00
Max loss
$42.00
Breakeven probability
42.0%

Bounded loss is not the same thing as low risk. Small changes in your probability estimate can flip the expected value of a binary contract.

Risk notice
Crypto perpetuals and leveraged trading are high risk. You can lose money through liquidation, funding, slippage, oracle issues, protocol failures, and market volatility.

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